(W) denotes a weekly event.
© 2018 Recognia Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Recognia and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely; and, (4) does not constitute advice or a recommendation by ShareKhan, Recognia Inc. or its content providers in respect of the investment in financial instruments. Neither ShareKhan nor Recognia Inc. nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Pricing, historical chart data, real-time and fundamental company data are provided by Morningstar Research Inc.
Technical Event® and Recognia® are registered trademarks of Recognia Inc.
Recognia products and services are protected under U.S. Patent Nos.: 6,801,201; 7,469,226; 7,469,238; 7,835,966; and 7,853,506; and corresponding foreign patents.
In the science of Technical Analysis, Volume plays a role which is as important as any other basic indicator. An increase in the volume in conjunction with Stock price moves adds strength and momentum in the direction of the move. It reflects the market’s confidence that the uptrend will continue in force or its pessimism that the downtrend will.
For the market, declining volumes as the market rises are supposed to warn the end of a BULL MARKET.
Likewise, a sharp increase in volumes resulting in Selling Climax signals the end of a BEAR MARKET.
An increase in abnormal volume can alert investors to coming price movements, Up or Down before it becomes obvious to the overall market. Therefore, the market axiom “Volumes Precedes Price.”
Historically, the majority of BULL MARKETS have originated with at least two days within the two-month period where upside volume is at least nine times greater than the downside volume. Investors who track volume and spot the two-day Exceptional Upside Indicator can out-maneuver other investors and earn excess returns by positioning themselves for the coming Bull Market.
Basic Volume theory includes the following maxims:
* Increasing Volume with an advance is Bullish
* Decreasing Volume with a decline is Bullish
* Increasing Volume with a decline is Bearish
* Decreasing Volume with an advance is Bearish
* A Market Top is imminent when heavy volumes occur with little or No Gain in the averages.
* Heavy Volume confirms the direction of price breakouts from a Support or Resistance Zones.
* An increase on heavy volumes after a previous substantial rally signals a “Blow Off” with an impending top and
* Heavy Volumes accompanied by an accelerating drop in prices confirms a “Selling Climax” and impending price
reversal after the panic selling subsides.
* Low volume periods after upward price reversals reflect a Consolidation Phase before the resumption of the Upward
The Daily Volume Indicator measures extremes in the Supply/ Demand relationship. If a Stock closes at the midpoint of its trading range for the day, the indicator reflects no change. Closing Price above or below the trading range midpoint show an increase or decrease in the Daily Volume Indicator, respectively.
In constructing the Daily Volume Indicators, Technical Analysts take into account the day’s volume, closing price, Distance between closing Price and the midpoint, and the Trading Range.
These are just the basic characteristics of the Volumes, these must be read in conjunction with other commonly used indicators before drawing up any conclusion.
|Head & Shoulder (Inverted)||Head & Shoulder|
|Rounding Bottoms (Saucer)||Rounding Tops|
|Descending Triangle||Ascending Triangle|
|Double/ Triple Bottoms||Double/ Triple Tops|
|Falling Wedge/ Channel||Rising Wedge/ Channel|
|V- Formations||V- Formations|
|Continuation Patterns||Continuation Patterns|
|Flags & Pennants||Flags & Pennants|
|Head & Shoulder (Continuation)||Head & Shoulder (Continuation)|
Many Traders are taking position for Intra-Day / Short Term or Medium Term depending upon the periodicity of charts if it is 5 Min/ 30 Min/ 60 Min/ Daily/ Weekly or Monthly Charts on confirmation of Breakout from any important pattern or Support or Resistance but often traders/ investors are faced with a dilemma of taking a position in
1. anticipation of a breakout,
2. taking a position on breakout itself, or
3. Waiting for the pullback or reaction after the break out occurs.
Although the arguments can be in favor of each approach or all combined, If a trader buys in anticipation of an upside break out, the profits are better if break out takes place. But at the same time, the chances of losing increase if the break out fails to materialize.
If the trader waits for the actual breaks out, the chances of success increase but at the cost of entry at a higher price. Waiting for a pullback after the break out may be a sensible approach provided the pullback occurs. Unfortunately, in many bull markets, traders don’t get a second chance. The risk involved in waiting for the pullback is an increased chance of missing the move.
The best strategy under the circumstances of a trader is to trade multiple positions. The traders should take a small position in anticipation of a break out buy some more on the breakout and add a little more on the pullback move after the breakout.
Trading at the breaking of trend lines
This is one of the most useful early entries of exit signals. If the trader is looking to enter a new position on a technical sign of a trend change or a reason to exist an old position, the break of the tight trend line is often an excellent action signal. Other technical factors must, of course, also be considered to arrive at a conclusive approach. Trend lines can also be used as entry and exit points when they are made to act as support and resistance levels.
Trading at support and resistance level
Support and resistance are the most effective chart rules to use for entry and exit points. The breaking of resistance can be a good signal. Enter into a buy position and the stop loss can be placed under the nearest support point. Rallies to resistance in a downtrend or declines to support in an uptrend can be used to initiate new positions or add to old profitable ones. For purpose of placing stop losses support and resistance levels are most valuable.
‘Investments’ is a sacred term for individuals. For many, investing means a kind of ‘compulsory’ savings from one’s earnings and getting lumpsum money later.
However, there is a lot more to investing than just that. Investing falls within a broader gamut of financial planning. It requires considerable thought and groundwork. Here, we have outlined some important guidelines to be borne in mind while planning your finances.
1. Do your homework
Before investing your money, ensure that you have done your homework well. It is ‘normal’ for sales pitches to be aggressive. Most sales executives are mainly interested in ‘commission earned’ or ‘business garnered’, which reflects in their monthly targets. That is why one only gets to hear the ‘best case scenario’ from agents/sales executives.
A lot of sales agents/consultants try to exploit the individual’s vulnerability and lack of knowledge while making a sales pitch. For instance, how else can you explain so many individuals in the low-risk category investing in high-risk ULIPs?
Or why term plans, in spite of being the cheapest form of insurance, are still not bought by most individuals? Or why mutual fund IPOs find so much favor with investors even when there is no fit in their portfolios?
One should understand his own profile in terms of income, risk appetite, and future plans and only then, make investments in tune with the same. Individuals need to know what benefits different products offer and how they fit into their financial portfolios before taking a call on investing in them.
You must listen to advise from different quarters but the final decision should rest with you alone after a careful analysis. After all, it’s your own hard-earned money.
2. Keep your eyes and ears open
Keep your eyes and ears open at all times for any investment opportunity that comes your way. The opportunity could be by way of changing market scenario or new product launches. Individuals shouldn’t lose out on any opportunity just because they didn’t know it existed.
Of course, this involves a bit of updating yourself with latest product trends, market conditions and changing economic scenario. This way, you will not be completely at the mercy of the consultant/agent to provide you with investment-related information and solutions.
3. Involve yourself
While buying any financial product, ensure that you have involved yourself at critical stages. For example, while taking life insurance, see to it that you personally fill all the details in the proposal form.
Insurance agents many times used to, themselves, fill up details like the height and weight of the insured, his age and medical history among other things, based solely on their own judgment. They merely asked the individual to sign on the form at the end.
What individuals don’t realise is that this can lead to rejection of claims at a later stage if discrepancies are found in the proposal form. The insurance company cannot be faulted for rejecting such a claim. It is a shortcoming on the agent’s part who should have requested you to fill the form yourself, else fill it himself after verifying your details.
All the necessary medical tests should also be diligently given. As mentioned earlier, any ‘false claims’ might lead to rejections at a later date.
4. Inform your near and dear ones
This is especially true in case of life insurance. Inform your near and dear ones as soon as the policy is bought. If your spouse and/or parents know that you have a life insurance cover wherein he/they are nominees, they will be better placed to follow up with the life insurance company for the claim proceeds should something happen to you.
Typically, life insurance should not be so sacred that you don’t broach the topic in the family. All related (and affected) parties must know exactly what needs to be done in your absence.
5. Maintain a logbook
Always maintain a logbook of your life insurance policies/investments. Individuals can and do have a variety of investments ranging from life insurance (endowment, term plan, ULIPs) to mutual funds and PPF/NSCs. A logbook should contain details about the same.
Over an extended period of time, it becomes difficult for one to remember or track investment details like maturity date, maturity value and rate of interest. This logbook will take care of that problem. Of course, it goes without saying that for the logbook to be really effective and useful, it should be updated periodically to reflect investments and redemptions.
This logbook should also include details of an individual’s liabilities like home loans, personal loans, the amount outstanding on such loans, the EMI and business liabilities (in case the individual runs a business) among others.
Details of the logbook should also be shared with your dependents (spouse, children, parents). An important reason for making a copy is, in case of an unfortunate eventuality, the spouse knows his/her exact financial status. Also, one wouldn’t want someone to come out of nowhere one fine day and stake a claim on the family’s assets based on some ‘fictitious’ liability.
The keys to successful Trading or Investing in the Stock Market are knowledge, discipline, and patience. Assuming that, you have some knowledge, the best way to achieve discipline and patience is doing your homework and having a plan of action ready before putting that plan to work. Though it may not guarantee success it will definitely increase the odds of winning in any financial market. When it comes to applying those technical principles, the most difficult part of the process is the actual purchase or sale in the trading. The final decision as to when to trade, how to trade and how much to trade and the type of trading orders to imply.
Day Trading has also the same principles of any financial market. The only real difference is the timing as it covers the very short term. The time frame that concerns us here is measured in hours, minutes and seconds as opposed to days, weeks and months but the technical tools implied remains the same.
(i) Trading on the break out from Patterns
(ii) Trading in overbought/ oversold zone
(iii) Trading at support and resistance level
(iv) Trading at the breaking of trend lines
(v) Trading at the percentage replacement
(vi) Trading while making the use of gaps
(vii) Trading on negative and positive divergences
The most effective way to formulate a trading strategy is to combine all of them. After the initial decision to buy or sell has already been made the above concepts can be used to fine-tune entry or exit points. Use of Stop Loss and applying of strict discipline will definitely help one become a successful trader.